Skeptic Claim

SkepticalScience.com’s Claim

The FACTs

1

"Climate's changed before"

Climate reacts to whatever forces it to change at the time; humans are now the dominant forcing.

CO2 FOLLOWS,  not leads temperature  Vostok

Minoan, Roman, & Medieval times were warmer WITHOUT man’s CO2  Temperature drives CO2  

2

"It's the sun"

In the last 35 years of global warming, sun and climate have been going in opposite directions

Solar activity is a much better fit to climate than CO2.

Climate naturally varies and the current  climate is well within historical natural variation.

3

"It's not bad"

Negative impacts of global warming on agriculture, health & environment far outweigh any positives.

Twice as many die from excessive cold as excessive heat (e.g., Deschenes and Moretti, 2009; Thacker et al., 2008; Goklany, 2007, 2009; Goklany and Straja 2000).

Warmer climates increase food production.

4

"There is no consensus"

97% of climate experts agree humans are causing global warming.

The 97% claim was a  survey of papers, NOT of scientists. The 97% was created by discarding most of the survey hits. Honest surveys show 50% or less agreement.

5

"It's cooling"

The last decade 2000-2009 was the hottest on record.

1. Of course we are still far below the much warmer Minoan, Roman and Medieval times.
2. Being warm says NOTHING about its cause.

6

"Models are unreliable"

Models successfully reproduce temperatures since 1900 globally, by land, in the air and the ocean.

Of course models can predict the past! That’s the easy part. When tested by time, the models predicted far too much warming, failed to predict the current 18 year lack of warming, falsely predicted a mid Troposphere hot spot, and falsely predicted more storms, and drought.

How Many Lousy Predictions Until Error Is Admitted?

7

"Temp record is unreliable"

The warming trend is the same in rural and urban areas, measured by thermometers and satellites.

Cities are clearly warmer than the surrounding rural areas.

Cities in the Northeast 7 °C to 9 °C warmer

Rural areas CLEARLY show much less warming than urban areas.  Background Information  

8

"Animals and plants can adapt"

Global warming will cause mass extinctions of species that cannot adapt on short time scales.

Mass extinctions are pure speculation based on the failed models. The current warming is less than earlier warmings.

9

"It hasn't warmed since 1998"

For global records, 2010 is the hottest year on record, tied with 2005.

These rankings are using the thermometer record which has been adjusted to turn cooling into warming and to hide the 1940-1975 cooling. And they hide the very warm 1930s.

Further thermometer data starts in coldest period in the last 12000 years.

10

"Antarctica is gaining ice"

Satellites measure Antarctica losing land ice at an accelerating rate.

It will take about 2,200 years to lose 1%.

11

"Ice age predicted in the 70s"

The vast majority of climate papers in the 1970s predicted warming.

Coming Ice age: Time, NYT, Science Digest

12

"CO2 lags temperature"

CO2 didn't initiate warming from past ice ages but it did amplify the warming.

Here they clearly admit that something, other than CO2 initiated the warming, but then make the unsupported claim that CO2 amplified the warming – it is more logical to assume that whatever started the warming simply continued. Further the data shows that the temperature starts back DOWN with CO2 at its peak,  CO2 still lags temperature on other timescales and  PDO And Solar Correlate Better Than CO2  the paper, and increasing CO2 may be natural

13

"Climate sensitivity is low"

Net positive feedback is confirmed by many different lines of evidence.

Actually there is NO EVIDENCE for net positive feedback and some good evidence for negative feedback. Climate sensitivity is LOW.

14

"We're heading into an ice age"

Worry about global warming impacts in the next 100 years, not an ice age in over 10,000 years.

The sun now resembles its state just before the little ice age.

Each of the last four warm periods, from Minoan times to now, were less warm than the one before it suggesting continued cooling in our future.

15

"Ocean acidification isn't serious"

Ocean acidification threatens entire marine food chains.

Ocean acidification is a false scare. The claimed amount of acidification is less than the measurement errors and the natural variation.  Coral reefs still thrive in a more “acidic” ocean
Further the oceans are firmly alkaline, and buffering guarantees that they never will be acedic.

16

"Hockey stick is broken"

Recent studies agree that recent global temperatures are unprecedented in the last 1000 years.

Problems with the “hockey stick”:

1. It Misapplied statistics (didn’t even get the name correct.)

2. It Failed to consult with statistics experts.

3. Claim that 1998 was warmest year not supported

4. The key paper, MBH98 is obscure and incomplete.

5. Mann used an inappropriate calibration period.

6. Authors in this area are closely connected and thus “independent studies” may not actually be independent

7. Used trees that were known to be unsuitable for temperature measurements

8. The widely recognized little ice age is missing.

9. Hid inconvenient data that, if divulged would have made the paper an immediately apparent as worthless (the is the famous “hide the decline” and “Mike’s Nature trick”)

10. The hockeystick dissappears without cherry picking

11. The Medieval warm period about 1000 years ago was warmer than now.  The Minoan and Roman periods were also warmer than now.

Also see:  Analysis of the Wegman Report by the blog that broke the hockey stick

17

"Climategate CRU emails suggest conspiracy"

A number of investigations have cleared scientists of any wrongdoing in the media-hyped email incident.

The investigations were designed to cover up the mis-doing. One only has to read a few of the actual emails to realize there was vast wrong doing ranging from attempts to falsify data, arbitrarily changing data, falsifying dates, getting journal editors fired for publishing opposing papers,  and destroying data subject to FOI requests.    Change to this page

18

"Hurricanes aren't linked to global warming"

There is increasing evidence that hurricanes are getting stronger due to global warming.

Hurricane activity is actually at a 45 year low

More here

19

"Al Gore got it wrong"

Al Gore's book is quite accurate, and far more accurate than contrarian books.

A British court found 9 (of 20) major errors in Gore’s book and required disclaimers on copies distributed to schools.

20

"Glaciers are growing"

Most glaciers are retreating, posing a serious problem for millions who rely on glaciers for water.

Glaciers started retreating at the end of the little ice age and the rate of  retreat peaked in the 1930s. The current rate of retreat is slower than the 1930s, another indication that the 1930s were warmer than now.

21

"It's cosmic rays"

Cosmic rays show no trend over the last 30 years & have had little impact on recent global warming.

Cosmic rays are well correlated with clouds.

Nature: “Cloud formation may be linked to cosmic rays”

New Scientist Editor: Svensmark’s Cosmic Jackpot  more

22

"1934 - hottest year on record"

1934 was one of the hottest years in the US, not globally.

US is widely recognized as having the best climate data, so 1934 was likely a world record.

23

"It's freaking cold!"

A local cold day has nothing to do with the long-term trend of increasing global temperatures.

Similarly, a local hot day has “nothing to do with the long-term trend of “ global temperatures up or down.

24

"Sea level rise is exaggerated"

A variety of different measurements find steadily rising sea levels over the past century.

Oceans have been rising for thousands of years. The issue is whether the RATE OF RISE has increased. The IPCC says NO:
“The trend in GMSL observed since 1993, however, is not significantly larger than the estimate of 18-year trends in previous decades (e.g., 1920–1950). “  Page 306 of  https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/WG1AR5_all_fi nal.pdf “
But even the IPCC admits that man’s CO2 was only high enough to affect temperature after 1950. (There is no actual evidence that man’s CO2 affected temperature after 1950 since warmings before and after 1950 are statistically indistinguishable and the arctic was warmer than now with less of man’s CO2.)

25

"It's Urban Heat Island effect"

Urban and rural regions show the same warming trend.

Cities are clearly warmer than the surrounding rural areas.

Cities in the Northeast tend to be 7 °C to 9 °C warmer

Rural areas show much less warming than urban areas.

Background Information

26

"Medieval Warm Period was warmer"

Globally averaged temperature now is higher than global temperature in medieval times.

Medieval warm period was indeed warmer than now as shown by many papers. Here is just one.

27

"Mars is warming"

Mars is not warming globally.

Debunking coming soon

28

"Arctic icemelt is a natural cycle"

Thick arctic sea ice is undergoing a rapid retreat.

False - Details coming soon

29

"Increasing CO2 has little to no effect"

The strong CO2 effect has been observed by many different measurements.

The arctic warmed MORE and FASTER with less of man’s CO2. Earlier warming rates with little of man’s CO2 are indistinguishable from the recent one.

US Temperatures and Climate Factors since 1895

30

"Oceans are cooling"

The most recent ocean measurements show consistent warming.

“The cold waters of Earth’s deep ocean have not warmed measurably since 2005, according to a new NASA study, leaving unsolved the mystery of why global warming appears to have slowed in recent years.”

more

31

"Human CO2 is a tiny % of CO2 emissions"

The natural cycle adds and removes CO2 to keep a balance; humans add extra CO2 without removing any.   

Humans emit about 5% of the total CO2 and CO2 accounts for about 9-26% of the warming, so even if man’s CO2 is the cause of the CO2 increase (a pure speculation), the temperature increase due to man is tiny.

Man is not causing CO2 increase?   CO2 from Oceans

32

"IPCC is alarmist"

Numerous papers have documented how IPCC predictions are more likely to underestimate the climate response.

Here is the IPCC prediction compared to reality.

More examples of the IPCC being wrong & alarmist

33

"Water vapor is the most powerful greenhouse gas"

Rising CO2 increases atmospheric water vapor, which makes global warming much worse.

There is ZERO evidence for water vapor amplifying global warming, only speculations.   Water vapor causes far MORE warming than CO2: “it’s clear that water vapour is the single most important absorber (between 36% and 66% of the greenhouse effect), and together with clouds makes up between 66% and 85%”  realclimate.org/index.php?p=142.

34

"Polar bear numbers are increasing"

Polar bears are in danger of extinction as well as many other species.

Polar bear populations are at all time highs (ie:since record keeping) and polar bears did just fine during earlier warm periods.

35

"CO2 limits will harm the economy"

The benefits of a price on carbon outweigh the costs several times over.

A price on carbon will kill third world people by forcing them to continue breathing smoke from indoor cooking & heating fires. Affordable energy reduces poverty and improves health.  A carbon price will delay life saving electrification. Carbon reduction is already forcing  people to choose between heat and food.

36

"It's not happening"

There are many lines of evidence indicating global warming is unequivocal.

Most agree that the globe has warmed since the little ice age. However, the actual thermometer readings show that we are now cooler than the 1930s. Only after “adjustments” to the data, is warming produced.

37

"Greenland was green"

Other parts of the earth got colder when Greenland got warmer.

Debunking coming soon

38

"Greenland is gaining ice"

Greenland on the whole is losing ice, as confirmed by satellite measurement.

Debunking coming soon

39

"CO2 is not a pollutant"

Through its impacts on the climate, CO2 presents a danger to public health and welfare, and thus qualifies as an air pollutant

Debunking coming soon

40

"CO2 is plant food"

The effects of enhanced CO2 on terrestrial plants are variable and complex and dependent on numerous factors

Debunking coming soon

41

"Other planets are warming"

Mars and Jupiter are not warming, and anyway the sun has recently been cooling slightly.

Debunking coming soon

42

"Arctic sea ice has recovered"

Thick arctic sea ice is in rapid retreat.

FALSE - Debunking coming soon

43

"There's no empirical evidence"

There are multiple lines of direct observations that humans are causing global warming.

FALSE - Debunking coming soon

44

"There's no correlation between CO2 and temperature"

There is long-term correlation between CO2 and global temperature; other effects are short-term.

FALSE - Debunking coming soon

45

"We're coming out of the Little Ice Age"

Scientists have determined that the factors which caused the Little Ice Age cooling are not currently causing global warming

FALSE - Debunking coming soon

46

"It cooled mid-century"

Mid-century cooling involved aerosols and is irrelevant for recent global warming.

FALSE - Debunking coming soon

47

"Global warming stopped in 1998, 1995, 2002, 2007, 2010, ????"

Global temperature is still rising and 2010 was the hottest recorded.

FALSE - Debunking coming soon

48

"CO2 was higher in the past"

When CO2 was higher in the past, the sun was cooler.

FALSE - Debunking coming soon

49

"It warmed before 1940 when CO2 was low"

Early 20th century warming is due to several causes, including rising CO2.

Debunking coming soon

50

"Satellites show no warming in the troposphere"

The most recent satellite data show that the earth as a whole is warming.

Debunking coming soon

76

"500 scientists refute the consensus"

Around 97% of climate experts agree that humans are causing global warming.

Here is a list of 1350+ Peer-Reviewed Papers Supporting Skeptic Arguments Against ACC/AGW Alarmism

The 97% consensus does not exist

86

"CO2 is coming from the ocean"

The ocean is absorbing massive amounts of CO2, and is becoming more acidic as a result.

When we start examining the details, the anthropogenic explanation for increasing atmospheric CO2 becomes less obvious.   Oceans NOT becoming acidic (less alkali)

131

"It warmed just as fast in 1860-1880 and 1910-1940"

The warming trend over 1970 to 2001 is greater than warming from both 1860 to 1880 and 1910 to 1940.

Phil Jones, head of the CRU (closely associated with the IPCC) and lead IPCC author told the BBC:

“So, in answer to the question, the warming rates for all 4 periods are similar and not statistically significantly different from each other.”

148

"97% consensus on human-caused global warming has been disproven"

The 97% consensus has been independently confirmed by a number of different approaches and lines of evidence.

The 97% claim was a  survey was a survey of papers, NOT of scientists. The 97% was created by discarding most of the survey hits. Honest surveys show 50% or less.

150

"CO2 only causes 35% of global warming"

CO2 and corresponding water vapor feedback are the biggest cause of global warming.

CO2 only causes about 35% of the warming. Water vapor feedback is pure speculation without any actual evidence that it exists and some evidence that it DOES NOT EXIST.